Coalition for Equitable Water Flow

TSW Drawdown Forecast - July 27/21

To view the latest revised Drawdown forecast reflecting recent rainfall and dam operations - click here

TSW Drawdown Forecast - July 20/21

To view the two-week forecast from TSW - click here

All reservoirs are above seasonal average levels and are facing a period of gradual drawdown assuming we do not experience more major rainfall events. The TSW has the goal of bringing all lakes back closer to normal seasonal levels, and they are actively managing dams throughout the reservoirs.  However after recent significant rainfall events (in June the Haliburton rainfall total was 154% of normal and so far in July we have already seen 119% of normal monthly rainfall) local inflows to all lakes and river sections is an important factor which slows the impact of dam operations and complicates forecasting.

The plan is to draw the reservoirs in the upper Gull River basin down over this two-week forecast period.  The drawdown of the Burnt River reservoirs is slower because of the high flows on the lower Burnt River which has no controls. The central lakes are being drawn down slowly with significant local inflows.

It is important to recognize that the drawdown forecast reflects current levels and inflows, and planned dam operations. It cannot account for possible rainfall events and is therefore subject to change

TSW Water Management Update

FROM THE TSW:

Weather

The five-day weather forecast predicts a low system that may result in 30-40 mm of rain and heavier amounts in localized areas impacted by thunderstorms.

Outlook

During the last three weeks, the Trent-Severn watersheds have received close to 100 mm the above-normal amount of rain. Due to the localized nature of the rain events, some areas have received twice the monthly precipitation.  The impacts from the above-average amounts of precipitation received remain across the system.  Flows and levels are above normal for this time of the year across all locations.   

Given the amount of rain in the short-term forecast, the Trent Severn Water Management team will be active, and the changing conditions will be closely monitored.   Any watershed conditions updates will be released by your Conservation Authority or local Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources district. 

Haliburton and Northern Areas 

Water levels and flows remain high in northern areas. Most lake levels on the Gull River, Burnt River system and Central Lakes are near full and are increasing. Lake levels are monitored on a 24-hour basis, and water management operations are being conducted based on the current watershed conditions, lake levels, estimated runoff amounts and forecasted rainfall. The flows on the Burnt River are above average and increasing and are expected to be sustained by the enhanced runoff from precipitation and operations in reservoirs.  The flows on the Gull River are above average for this time of year. 

Kawartha Lakes and the Otonabee River

Water levels in the Kawartha Lakes are above full, and the conditions across the system are due to sustained and elevated inflows from the Haliburton areas and the received amounts of rainfall. Flows on the Otonabee River are above average for this time of year. 

Rice Lake and the Lower Trent

Water levels on Rice Lake, Upper and the Lower Trent River are above average for this time of year. The Crowe River has peaked and is receding.

TSW Drawdown Forecast - July 14/21

Significant rainfall has overcome the earlier serious water shortage and Reservoir levels are now close to or above seasonal normal levels. To view the forecast - click here

 

The rainfall across the Trent Basin has resulted in higher than normal lake levels and flows in the Kawartha Lakes and the Waterway. While TSW is working to get those levels into normal ranges the drawdown of reservoirs has been slowed, and the rainfall has resulted in levels at or above seasonal levels. In a few cases levels have approached the normal spring levels.

 

The current drawdown forecast shows only limited drawdown for the next two weeks for most reservoirs. 

TSW Drawdown Forecast - July 6/21

Water Levels Return to More Normal Levels

After recent rainfall events and active water management by the TSW water management team at all dams, the water levels on most reservoirs have returned to close to seasonal normal levels and the rate of drawdown has been reduced.

To view the TSW two-week forecast - click here

TSW Drawdown Forecast - June 29/21

Please see latest Drawdown Forecast from TSW - click here

Note that this takes account of the weekend rains and the ongoing water management activities. However it is subject to change depending on the forecasted rainfall amounts and distribution. Readers should refer to the TSW website where the most up to date information on water levels is posted daily. See links in upper right corner of this webpage.

TSW Reservoirs Update - June 28/21

Significant Rainfall in Some Areas Trigger Dam Operations to Raise Water Levels in Reservoirs

CEWF has been communicating with the TSW Water Management Team to follow up on the recent rainfall events and dam operations.

The rainfall over the Trent Basin covered the whole basin on Friday but on Saturday and Sunday the patterns were much more variable. As of Monday morning the 3 day rainfall totals range from over 140mm in the north at Kennisis Lake to less than 30 mm over the Kawartha Lakes and even less further south over the Trent basin. This rainfall certainly helps to raise levels in reservoirs but it does not correct for the overall drought across the watershed. There is more precipitation in the forecast for later in the week and hopefully it will track further south over the Trent and provide a general rainfall over the entire watershed.

The TSW water management team has been active replacing logs in reservoirs. As of today dam operations will continue in an effort to control outflows and bring reservoirs back to closer to season levels while still maintaining the necessary flows south to maintain the Waterway levels on minimum flows.

It is expected that by mid-week we will see a new Drawdown Forecast posted and updated water levels have been posted on Monday morning. Readers are encouraged to link to the Water Level and Drawdown forecast pages by using the links in the upper right of this CEWF.ca webpage.

TSW Water Level Forecast - June21/21

Record Low June Water Levels Facing Some Reservoirs

Many reservoirs are facing record low water levels for late June and the drawdown is continuing. To view the current 2-week forecast - click here

Nine of the 35 reservoirs are scheduled to drop by more than 20 cms in the next two weeks unless conditions change with significant rainfall events across the basin. The lack of major rainfall events over large areas of the Trent River Basin over several months, and high rates of evaporation from large lakes have resulted in the early significant drawdown of the reservoirs. The rate of drawdown is guided by the equal % of full policy which means that those lakes which filled or were closer to full in spring are seeing the largest drawdowns at this stage.

The TSW Water Management Team continues to actively manage all dams and stands ready to react to rainfall events.  Water conservation measures with minimum flows are continuing in the Kawartha Lakes and downstream on the Otonabee River through Peterborough. We need significant prolonged rainfall events over the entire Trent Basin to begin to make up for the water deficit resulting from the limited snowmelt runoff and the very dry spring to date.

TSW Update & Forecast - June 15/21

In spite of some locally significant rainfall events the extreme drought conditions continue across most of the Trent River basin including in the reservoir areas. Many of the largest reservoirs failed to reach their full level this spring and now the drawdown has begun to offset the high evaporation rates and lack of rainfall over the Kawartha lakes. Several reservoirs are projected to see a drop of more than 20cms over the next two weeks. In most cases the more extreme drawdown rates will be on the reservoirs that have been closest to their normal seasonal levels.

The drawdown forecast will be produced weekly by TSW and always forecasts the situation for a two-week period. CEWF will post the weekly forecast as soon as we receive it.

The current situation is very serious and we will need well above normal monthly rainfall totals to recover from what are already seasonally low water levels in most cases

Readers are encouraged to follow the plot of reservoir levels on the TSW website (link on upper right) and the local weather patterns for Haliburton and Peterborough (link on the lower left).

To view the TSW two-week drawdown forecast - click here

TSW Water Management Update: (to view TSW website - click here)

Weather

Rainfall amounts for March-May have contributed to 40-55 % less precipitation compared to the long term mean value for spring season. The month of May contributed to values that are less than 50-75 mm than the long-term mean.  The 5-day forecast suggests 15-25 mm of rain and above 20 C day time air temperatures.  Most of the rainfall forecasted is associated with thunderstorms and could be highly variable from one location to another.

Outlook

The spring of 2021 has presented a unique set of challenges for the water management program of the Waterway.  The early melt and exceedingly dry conditions resulted in the minimal flows experienced since early April until present across the system and the low levels in all flow-through lakes. The dry conditions resulted in additional strain on some of the Haliburton Reservoirs more than others.  Every effort is made to ensure that water management decisions are carefully considered, acknowledging Parks Canada’s responsibility to balance the needs of all users in the system.

The Trent Severn Water Management team is active on the daily basis, and the changing conditions will be closely monitored. Any watershed condition updates will be released by your Conservation Authority or local Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources district.

Haliburton and Northern Areas

Most lakes are below long term average water levels. The Gull River reservoirs are 85% full. Burnt River reservoirs are 90% full. The Central Reservoirs are 91% full. The drawdown has commenced and the rate of drop will be largely dependent on the rainfall received.

TSW Water Management Update - June 2/21

Drought and low water levels in many reservoirs continue.

 

Under extremely dry conditions low water levels are persisting in some reservoir areas and in flow through lakes and river sections. In particular reservoirs in the northern Gull River; Kennisis, Hawk, Halls, and Kushog; in the Maple Lake branch; Oblong, and Redstone; and in the northern Central Lakes; Crystal and Eels; all are experiencing levels that are well below normal.

 

With no relief in the weather forecast Trent-Severn Water Management team will continue integrated water management across the entire Trent Basin with water conservation measures in place in all sectors.

FROM THE TSW:

(to view TSW website - click here)

Weather

Rainfall amounts for March-May have contributed to  40-55 % less precipitation compared to the long term mean value for spring season. The month of May contributed to values that are less than 50-75 mm than the long term mean.  The 10 day forecast suggests a transition to high temperatures approaching 30C. There is less than 5 mm of rain in this week precipitation forecast.  Most of the rainfall forecasted is associated with thunderstorms and could be highly variable from one location to another.

Outlook

The spring of 2021 has presented a unique set of challenges for the water management program of the Waterway.  The early melt and exceedingly dry conditions resulted in the minimal flows experienced since early April until present across the system and the low levels in all flow-through lakes. The dry conditions resulted in additional strain on some of the Haliburton Reservoirs more than others.  Every effort is made to ensure that water management decisions are carefully considered, acknowledging Parks Canada’s responsibility to balance the needs of all users in the system.

The Trent Severn Water Management team is active on the daily basis, and the changing conditions will be closely monitored. Any watershed condition updates will be released by your Conservation Authority or local Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources district.

Haliburton and Northern Areas

Most lakes are near or below long term average water levels. The Gull River reservoirs are 87% full. Burnt River reservoirs are 95% full. The Central Reservoirs are 94% full. Flows on the Gull River have been at their minimum flows starting early April. Burnt River flows remain at their minimum flows beginning in early May.  

Kawartha Lakes and the Otonabee River

The Kawartha Lakes are below average. The dam in Lindsay, controlling the levels on Lake Scugog, has all logs in. Otonabee River flows have been reduce to minimum. 

Rice Lake and the Lower Trent

Rice Lake is below the average water levels and the Lower Trent river reaches remain in the standard navigable ranges.

Severn River

Lake Simcoe water levels are below average. The outflows from Lake Simcoe are minimal.  Black River flows are below average and approaching minimal flows for this time of the year. Severn River flows have been reduced to minimum. Flow changes may continue depending on the rainfall received. Lake St. John is at summer set.